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More essential advice for the Reform party from Pete... "....I don't think the right has grasped the danger here. Ukip could afford to put up unvetted no-hoper candidates because it was an exercise in vote diversion. If the game has changed to the extent that Reform actually stands a chance of breaking through, then it simply can't afford low calibre candidates. Think about it. Imagine Farage gets elected along with four other randoms. Maybe one of them is halfway intelligent, two are semi-literate boomer normies, and the other is a Christian fundamentalist lunatic with their own agenda.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Farage immediately has to disown the nutcase, then Sky and Hope Not Hate does a deep dive on the social media feeds of the boomer normies. They then find anti-Muslim hate memes or Britain First style videos. Farage immediately has to sack one of them while the other goes into hiding, and six months later resigns their seat. After that, the media round on the halfway intelligent one, who will end up being an absolute embarrassment, leaving Farage out on his own.&nbsp;&nbsp;
The thing about Westminster, is it's a nasty, nasty game. I don't think even Farage is prepared for it. Westminster makes the Euro parliament looks like a daycare centre. It will bully an interloper half to death. You need skin as thick as Galloway to cope with it. That's partly why our politicians turn into sociopaths.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Reform has a decision to make here. It either accepts that its candidates will have views that are unpalatable to the media (and be prepared to defend them to the hilt), or be prepared to lose half or all of its MPs in the first year to political assassination.&nbsp;&nbsp;
But we know how this goes. On matters such as this, Farage always folds at the first challenge. He's still playing the game by pre-Brexit rules. He still thinks media respectability is important. That only invites more of the same behaviour from the media. Moreover, that allows the media to frame the boundaries of what is morally acceptable discourse, so we'll end up not having the debates we need to have, and Farage will be trained by the system to stay within those parameters.&nbsp;
One term of serial embarrassments for Reform makes it look like a one-man-band novelty act, and one that is incapable of finding any talent equal or better than Farage, and the momentum will collapse.&nbsp;
In order to avoid this, Reform is going to have to either invest in proper vetting and start nurturing some serious talent, or it's going to have to stop caving and say its candidates are entitled to their views and if the media doesn't like that then tough. Sacking candidates they way they're doing here is like throwing chum into shark infested waters.&nbsp;&nbsp;
The bottom line is that the establishment is not going to rollover and let outsiders get a foothold. It will fight to the death, and use every dirty trick in the book. If Farage is going to walk into every ambush and cave in any time some heat is applied, then the right has already lost.&nbsp;&nbsp;
This is why the party actually need a harder line on immigration. It can't be a media-friendly outfit with moderate policies. It has to be unapologetically nationalist and be ready to speak plainly about British identity, otherwise it will end up sacking exactly the kind of candidates its members actually want, and pretty soon you end up pissing off your activist base who end up spilling off into yet another hard right no-hoper party.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3>The kind of amateurism we're seeing from Reform classic is Farage. Nobody can deny his media presence and his capacity to hold court, but when it comes to leading a movement, the lack of attention to detail, and the absence of a strategy will prove to be a fatal liability.</h3>

The Westminster trough is not for the ill-prepared - or faint-hearted

In which our Pete expresses some concern that Nigel may not be the Knight on the white charger, after all. However, Pete is maybe overlooking the dawning terror that five years of Labour could wreck the lives and communities of this nation, meaning that a lesser evil would be to give Nigel an opportunity to start the complete political Revolution that&nbsp; many believe is now the only way out of the uniparty mess. Everyone, be careful what you wish for... but make sure he takes the wote pledge - and agrees to do what the electorate want done. This opinion snapshot from <a data-mce-href="@JamesMelville" href="@JamesMelville" target="_blank" rel="noopener">James Melville's twitter account&nbsp;</a> <figure id="figure-0pwnd3b9pilx658dak" data-full-width=""><img id="0pwnd3b9pilx658dak" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/aw5eVh6HCzWhANAFxWB7sIReKSQDh0q3fO43N3QhBMJESM6yXGLVUdxy57Tygn19.png" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: 45% 75%;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="45%" data-positiony="75%" data-fullwidth="true" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/aw5eVh6HCzWhANAFxWB7sIReKSQDh0q3fO43N3QhBMJESM6yXGLVUdxy57Tygn19.png" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: 45% 75%;"></figure>"... My initial thinking was that Reform could be the basis of an insurgent movement, but it would require an intellectual foundation and a commitment to building policies and a grassroots organisation. That was unlikely before the return of Farage (but it was worth a try), but it's absolutely impossible now. You could give Reform the best policies in the world, but slapdash Farage wouldn't bother to learn them and would rewrite them or ditch them on the fly if he found himself in a tight spot. He's an amateur to the core. Always has been.&nbsp;&nbsp;
So Reform is now going to soak up a lot of energy, money and exposure to no useful effect, will have its day in the limelight, but will gradually disintegrate and then it joins Ukip on the scrapheap of failed political parties.&nbsp;&nbsp;
That then made me think that entryism, to try and build something from the wreckage of the Tory party is our best bet. Looking at the constituent parts and the way the liberal wets are stitching it up to prevent an entryist takeover, it looks like an impossible mountain to climb, but only if you're thinking in the short term. I think the wets have to crash and burn a second time (on their own terms), in circumstances where they don't get to blame the right of the party. As such, the preparatory work begins now, in anticipation of the Tories losing in 2029.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
This would have been easier without Reform in the picture, but now efforts are going to be split between conservative revivalists and those who think Reform is going somewhere. As such, I don't think the right is getting anywhere near power for the next fifteen years unless Labour completely implodes, but if that happens, the right still won't have resolved its internal conflicts, and is likely to go suffer the same factionalism.&nbsp;
In light of that, I'm starting to think we ain't voting our way out of this mess, but I will plod on in the hope that my limited efforts might pay off. I now think that instead of pratting about with political parties we now have to build flanking organisations that bridge the two parties of the right, providing the intellectual basis for policy and activism. With any luck, by 2034, Farage will be bowing out due to age/ill health, and the decks are clear for something else.&nbsp;&nbsp;
For this, we're going to need younger, sharper leadership. On that score, I'm quietly confident something will show up. Greatness seems to skip a generation so Gen Xers are not going to provide that leadership, but by then, a lot of the zoomers will be coming of age politically, and they won't suffer from the same boomer liberalism as they grew up in a different moral universe to the post-war boomers/gen X. <h3>As I've been saying, the right needs to be working a twenty year plan, because there are no shortcuts, and every time we cut corners we set the cause back by a decade.</h3>

Not the cavalry rescue, after all

Young businessman sitting with crystal ball in action

Pete's crystal ball is once again tuned into an imminent dystopian future... .... When Britain slides into civil war, which is now a 'when' rather than 'if', we won't even notice we're in one for the first few years. It will be a phoney war. It will take place on our city streets after dark, and we won't even be sure who the protagonists are. People will still travel to work as normal come morning, surveying the damage from the top deck of the bus, retreating to the peace of the outer suburbs at night.&nbsp;We'll still hold elections as normal, but each time it will be more alien to us, until one day, not so many years from now, we find that white British people are the minority in parliament, and issues concerning Britain will simply not be debated. That's when the penny will drop, even with middle class white liberals (or some of them anyway), that something dark is upon us. At this point, the white working classes will begin to organise politically on ethnic lines, abandoning the traditional parties. They will sweep aside pretenders like Reform.&nbsp;For now, ethnonationalism is an electoral non-starter, and a losers' creed, but when Islamists outnumber conservatives in parliament, and the left wing parties are the handmaidens of Jihad, we will see local political alliances of nativists becoming voluntary community defence forces. Initially, the police will try to stop them, but increasingly, white British policemen will switch sides.&nbsp;At that point, the violence will intensify. The violence up to now has notably been interethnic violence between blacks and Asians, Muslims and Hindus, but when it starts to spill out, it will become whites versus minorities. It will be further aggravated by the far left tooling up to fight the white nationalists.&nbsp;From there, normal routines begin to collapse as people stay away from the cities, and they soon start to resemble 28 Days Later. Offices will switch to lockdown procedures, encouraging people to work from home, while public transport ceases to operate, and people don't go out in their cars due to road block ambushes, and at this point the army is deployed to basically seal off the city centres.&nbsp;<h3>But there won't be enough manpower for the army to take back control, and in all probability, given who's in charge, the army could even break away from political control under a strong man general (assuming they're not all DEI indoctrinated clones). It may even take a coup within the army, and then the army starts rounding up civilian men and pressing them into militias.</h3>At this point we will see a lot of immigrants leaving Britain in droves, but we will also have in influx of foreign Islamists with a supply of weapons. Cross channel ferries will cease operating, but there will be steady traffic in small boats. Meanwhile, there's a mass exodus of remaining whites in London to the regions. We'll see huge tent cities springing up around white strongholds.&nbsp;We still won't call it a full-blown civil war, though. It won't be the kind of airstrikes and shelling we've seen in Syria. Just absolute chaos, all the time, everywhere, worsening as the national grid collapses, and we only have power for a few hours a day, if at all. Soon after, the collapse of cross channel trade will cause an acute food crisis, especially after the supermarkets have been stripped bare. We'll then see raiding parties invading homes, scavenging for food.I don't know how this ends, or if we can pull it back from the brink of mass slaughters, but it may even collapse at the same time as Germany and France. The odds of this happening in Britain now seem as likely as a war with Russia.&nbsp; A war with Russia might very well be the thing that brings it about as the British people decide they are not going to fight and die for a regime that's run by and for foreigners. I just don't know. But from the way it looks, I don't think we can vote our way out of this mess. I just know that it's coming, and probably in my lifetime. It is not going to be pretty.

When will the penny drop?

The lesson that technocrats took from the horrors of the second world war was that nationalism was the cause of it. They subsequently spent the next six decades dismantling nations, and removing their capacity to operate independently in the belief that our forced interdependence would make war a thing of the past. That, fundamentally, was the logic behind the European Coal and Steel Community - the proto-EU.&nbsp;But in muting national democracy they grew ever more remote, aloof, and hubristic, imposing elite liberal values on the people's of Europe without their consent, to the extent of abolishing national borders, and liberalising trade to the extent of deindustrialising whole swathes of Europe.&nbsp;They believed that by destroying the nation state we would become a greater European community and we would be content to live as economic units under a faceless corporate identity, counter to all we know about human instinct, just so long as we have convenient travel and cheap consumables.&nbsp;<h3>The consequence is a Europe of sclerotic, over-regulated economies, with national governments that no longer respond to democratic inputs, as elites flush the remnants of their industries down the toilet in the name of saving the planet - on the instructions of a hysterical teenager and a cult with an agenda rooted in world domination by misdirection.&nbsp;</h3>Further doubling down on neoliberal ideology, ruling elites turned to the spreadsheet sociopaths in the "expert class" to solve labour shortages by importing millions of low skill, low IQ third worlders, transforming the homelands of Europe into post-industrial flophouses.Not content with dismantling the democratic nations of Europe, they turned their hubristic eye eastward with a view to expanding the neoliberal empire, against all warnings, and now we see a return to war in Europe.The rising populism and "far right" is the inevitable consequence of dismantling European democracies. It is the vow to "take back control" from a feral elite which has long outstayed its welcome.Today we mark D-Day as the beginning of Europe's liberation from imperialist tyrants, but soon we'll have to do it all over again; to reclaim Europe from the very people who believed national democracy was the enemy, and that technocratic dictatorship was the solution.&nbsp;Only this time, the battles won't be between opposing armies. There will be no landing craft or air assaults. The battles will be between the peoples of Europe and their tyrannical elites, who will use every measure at their disposal to clamp down on our freedoms just to stay in power.Ultimately, the vote was the means of bloodless revolution, but in rendering our votes meaningless, they've paved the war for the next major European conflict, which may yet consume us all in fire.Ironically, we go to the polls on the Fourth of July, known to the Americans as Independence Day, but there is no Independence Day for us, or even a D-Day. No matter how we vote, the regime still wins. Thus, we are on a countdown to unavoidable conflict.<h3>The regime knows this. Every European political establishment knows it is living on borrowed time. </h3>This is why they're ramping up the war rhetoric with Russia. Only if they can manufacture an external enemy can they cling on to power. It works every time, and we keep falling for it. Don't let them do it again. They spit on your democracy, your identity, and your nation, then expect you to die for them while they replace you by the back door.&nbsp;As they line up on this day in remembrance of the fallen at Normandy, mouthing the platitudes of freedom and democracy, they dishonour the dead and speak with forked tongue. They've co-opted remembrance as an opportunity to gaslight us - remembering the invasion of eighty years ago, while turning their backs, and closing their eyes to the modern day Channel invasion - with a sly glint in their eyes. <h3>Every invader that lands at Dover further weakens our identity and devalues our votes. And that's exactly how they want it. You must learn to hate the elites as much as they hate you.</h3><h3>&nbsp; </h3>

Lest they remember...

Love him or hate him, Tommy Robinson has been consistently controversial and as produced a couple of fascinating documentaries- the first was Panorama, which roundly exposed the BBC as utterly biased and resulted in the departure of reporter John Sweeney. The latest offering is LawFare - which exposes the utterly subverted UK justice system. We are&nbsp; now a banana monarchy! <figure id="figure-gxremtqa2llx2do6e7"><iframe id="gxremtqa2llx2do6e7" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RxXYVL0ZwUc" class="w-full bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" allowfullscreen="" data-url="https://youtu.be/RxXYVL0ZwUc?si=DCyEiyk6RgZUM3e0" data-corners="default" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RxXYVL0ZwUc" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></iframe></figure>

Is the UK now a banana monarchy?

What makes elections fun for a blogger is that your best analysis of the facts can be completely scrubbed off the board in twenty-four hours. And then a day later, it all changes again. Predictions are unwise yet we keep making them. Events are certainly keeping things interesting.&nbsp;Farage being back in the game certainly upends any narratives about Reform and I’m having to recalibrate some of my thinking. I had written them off, but it’s worth gaming some of the possibilities.&nbsp;As I understand it, the Clacton MP, Giles Watling, is a hugely popular MP in the constituency and has a massive majority. To come from nowhere and take him down is a massive task in its own right. Neither the Lib-Dems nor Labour have much of a following, so basically Farage has to hope that he can carve out what's left of Watling's vote after subtracting the stay-at-home vote. Clacton is winnable for Farage this time.&nbsp;His presence also changes the arithmetic for Reform. In normal circumstances, Reform would still be looking at zero seats, but if the Tories do nothing to recalibrate their offer to the public, the levels of Tory voter absenteeism could gift a handful of seats to Reform.&nbsp;These are unusual circumstances where Farage hasn't particularly enhanced his appeal, rather Rishi Sunak has done everything possible to make his party unelectable. That will be the curious tale of this election - in that most MPs, especially on the Labour benches, owe their jobs to apathy rather than an explicit mandate.&nbsp;In these circumstances, Farage could very easily eclipse the Tory party as he becomes the focal point of hate from the new influx of young Labour wokelings and Islamists. In these conditions, they're not going to make it a very pleasant environment, Farage. I expect they will ringfence him the way they did Galloway, while the Tory leadership will be keen to keep him at arm's length. They will attempt to bog Farage down in parliamentary disciplinary procedures, at which point he becomes even more of an anti-establishment, anti-politics figurehead.I suspect, then, with the left being as unhinged as it is, that Farage will have to double up on personal security. The establishment within parliament will make it abundantly clear that they see him as an interloper, and hold him morally accountable for any violence at Tommy Robinson demonstrations - the same as they tried to pin the murder of Jo Cox on Brexiteers.&nbsp;The reason for this is that his presence will force them to have debates they would rather not have. That will be interesting because the Tory wets will have to work out where they stand, lest they be passive spectators making an irrelevance of themselves. As such, Farage will be the de facto leader of the right in parliament.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the presence of newly elected Islamists will make this the most fractious parliament we have ever seen. They will seek to paint Farage as "far right" and the Tories will probably throw him under the bus. They're not going to let Farage capitalise on his election, and you can expect the media to paint him as the new Nick Griffin. Both the Tories and Labour will bombard Clacton with a view to unseating Farage in 2029. I think we will see a combined establishment effort to keep Reform from making further gains, and it will expose the whole system in its full rotten glory.&nbsp;For some time now I've been saying the Westminster establishment is entering its final chapter, but it's going to be a fight to the death. The 2029 election will see every dirty trick in the book, meanwhile political Islam will continue to rise in power and influence, reinforced by continued immigration, possibly eclipsing Reform. From here on, politics is going to take a dark and dangerous turn.On that score, public debate will drift far to the right of Farage. He could very easily alienate his own supporters by being too soft on immigration. He has already disowned Reform’s policy of offshore detention, and is sticking to Richard Tice’s Net Zero immigration policy. His position isn’t realistic enough for opinion formers, but too soft for hardliners. Farage is such a bundle of contradictions that he could self-destruct within a week.Ironically, Farage does not enjoy the support of the “far right” on this. Farage is willing to push the boundaries but will only go so far. Not far enough according to some. It’s just not his natural inclination.&nbsp;The point people miss about Farage is that he did not come to politics campaigning on immigration. Ukip from inception was a Brexit party, and we did NOT talk about immigration, and we had a zero tolerance policy on BNP members joining. If anyone raised immigration at party conference, they would very rapidly change the subject because Farage was adamant that Eurosceptics must not be labelled racist. In that respect, we were a politically correct party.&nbsp;What changed was when the BNP scored a million votes at the 2009 euro elections. As soon as Farage recognised there were MEP seats up for grabs in the north as BNP was disintegrating, he changed Ukip policy overnight and banged on about immigration.He subsequently conflated EU freedom of movement with open borders, which is why so many people believe the Brexit referendum was an immigration referendum. It wasn't. It was always specifically to do with leaving the EU and immigration was the issue to get it over the line.&nbsp;Ever since, Farage has been out of his depth because he never felt strongly on the issue one way or the other. He’s one who operates on autopilot, and if he's talking about immigration, the specific immigration topic is a best guess... and obviously he picks on the small boats and Muslims because it's topical. He spouts whatever the last person he spoke to about it said to him. Ultimately, he will stay within the safety margin of acceptability, and he will always stop short of anything radical unless public sentiment gets there before him. He trails public opinion. He does not lead it.<h3>The question on my mind is whether Farage will step up to the plate when it comes to confronting the rise of political Islam. He went to considerable lengths to distance himself from Ukip when the party sought to become the vehicle for anti-Islam sentiment. It may be that even in his current incarnation, he’s too politically correct and timid for the job.&nbsp;</h3>This matters because we're seeing history repeat. In 2019 Farage blathered about a "points based immigration system" instead of advancing a comprehensive and detailed immigration proposal that examined all the threads of it. The Tories then created their own interpretation. Fast-forward to now and Reform is bleating about "Net Zero immigration", which the Tories will then endorse as the populist approved benchmark policy, and then we're still importing 600,000 people a year and back at square one.Ultimately, policy must address itself to the problems, and this is no longer just a case of managing the influx. We have a very real problem with garbage immigration that isn't needed or wanted, and contributes nothing. That case is very easily made and understood, and the remedy suggests itself, but that may just be too rich for Farage’s blood, and once again, the right will have been led up the garden path.If you need more Pete North, then click along <a data-mce-href="https://www.northernvariant.co.uk/" href="https://www.northernvariant.co.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Northern Variant</a> -

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Blog: the Revolution starts here...

The Westminster trough is not for the ill-prepared - or f...

Not the cavalry rescue, after all

When will the penny drop?

Lest they remember...

Is the UK now a banana monarchy?

Milkshaken, but not stirred...