Is Reform a lazy lightweight?

27DEC24 V0.1

Pete North remains to be impressed...

I think it was around March when I began analysing Reform. I've been banging more or less the same drum ever since. Nothing has changed. It's got worse. It still has no philosophical foundation, no grassroots organisation, no subject expertise, and no policy to speak of. The only thing they've professionalised is their media operation. 

This is still a party that would not know how to usefully wield power. It can win seats on the basis of dissatisfaction with the establishment parties, but the last six months have proved that they don't know what to do with the influence they have. Rupert Lowe is the exception. They know how to do electioneering and gimmicks, but the work of real parliamentarians is beyond their abilities.

The clear lesson from the election is that Reform underperformed because it has no ground game, and had they built a grassroots organisation, they could have won more than a dozen seats. They at least had the excuse of being a relatively new organisation with limited resources, but they will head into the next election in a similar state of a disarray, with rarely vetted candidates, no local coordination, no policies, and no idea what to do with power. 

Responding to such criticisms, they've done the bare minimum to give the outward appearance of professionalisation and democratisation, but as Ben Habib has revealed, it is still essentially the same top-down organisation, and local organisations are left to fend for themselves but are unable to operate as an independent branch. 

The challenge was always to evolve beyond a personality-led media operation and into a coherent political force - but none of this work has been done, nor will it ever be done. The leadership is satisfied that they're going everything right, because opinion polls and supporter numbers are their sole metric of performance.   They are incapable of self-reflection, and in capable of taking on board criticism. 

At the last election Reform came second in 98 places. A realistic strategy would be to focus energy and resources on these places, with saturation local campaigning, to turn them into seats at the next election. But they won't do that. They won't even have candidates in place until the last minute. The party doesn't do long term planning. Again they will run their campaign from the centre through the media, in the mistaken belief that social media hype equates to votes.  

Meanwhile, the party will become a life-raft for Tory has-beens and political grifters. Farage will take anyone if they produce a headline or two for a day. Policy will be triangulated for the needs of the moment. That means being all things to all people, contradicting themselves as they go. 

In that time, half as many who join will become disillusioned with the party. As with Ukip, there will be a large churn of members and activists, and dedicated activists will realise no support, instruction or thanks is coming their way, and that there is no recognition for their efforts. They'll be left to fend for themselves.

Having failed to build a fighting force, Reform will enter the next election having to cobble together a campaign at the last minute, same as last time, and though they might very well score a few more Westminster seats, they'll let scores of second places slip through their fingers. They'll call it a victory too. 

So then by 2029, we have a largely defunct Tory party, probably on its next leader already, flanked by an incoherent populist party of equal size, but with neither capable of dislodging Labour. Neither party will be capable of mobilising those who've lost confidence in the electoral process and Labour will win a majority in much the same basis as 2024. 

Because Reform will have increased its parliamentary headcount, the right will still persist with the delusion that Reform is likely to achieve something, while still failing to produce anyone capable of replacing Farage. Farage will get bored, Lowe will bow out due to old age or ill health, and they'll be left with Tice as a caretaker, treading water until implosion. Assuming, of course, that Farage doesn't sell out and merge with the Tories (which was always his plan).

Ultimately, Reform is a sunk cost fallacy. Perhaps it can drag the Tory party to the right, but neither party is in any shape to fight and win. The Tories can't win under Badenough, but Reform cannot win as a populist top-down supporters club that can't even articulate a coherent immigration policy. Labour will have done nothing to deserve a second term, but the right will have done nothing to deserve power. Anyone who believes Reform will up-end the uniparty is kidding themselves. They are more likely to join it, putting us back at square one.