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Arctic Sea Ice: don't panic

Feb 11, 2025By Chris Martz

CM

Chris Martz provides advice for climate catastrophists.
Things just got tougher for climate alarmists. 😱

Remember when Iceberg A-68 calved off Antarctica's Larsen C Ice Shelf in the summer of 2017? The climate chicken littles blamed it on global warming. πŸ”

Well, unfortunately for their alarm, a study published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) in November has cast some serious doubt on that claim. MacKie et al. (2024) found:

πŸ“Š The break-off of Iceberg A-68 from the Larsen C Ice Shelf was 𝒏𝒐𝒕 statistically exceptional.

πŸ›°οΈ There has been 𝒏𝒐 increase in size of the annual largest iceberg calving off of Antarctica since satellite measurements began in 1976.

🧊 Using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model, it is revealed that there could, in a theoretical sense, be calving events that produce icebergs several times larger than anything observed in the 47-year-long satellite era, and even if that were to occur, such an event could not necessarily be tied to man-made global warming. These have already occurred throughout the Holocene (e.g., Bentley et al., 2005).

πŸ”—MacKie et al. (2024): https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112235

πŸ”—Bentley et al. (2005): https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/33/3/173/29528/Early-Holocene-retreat-of-the-George-VI-Ice-Shelf

Here's an excerpt from the new paper,

πŸ—¨οΈ β€œπ‘‡β„Žπ‘–π‘  𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑒𝑔𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑑𝑠 π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘’π‘›π‘‘ 𝑒π‘₯π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘šπ‘’ π‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘£π‘–π‘›π‘” 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 π‘ π‘’π‘β„Ž π‘Žπ‘  π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘Žπ‘˜-π‘œπ‘“π‘“ π‘œπ‘“ 𝐴68 𝑖𝑛 2017 π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘’ 𝒏𝒐𝒕 π’π’†π’„π’†π’”π’”π’‚π’“π’Šπ’π’š 𝒂 π’”π’šπ’Žπ’‘π’•π’π’Ž 𝒐𝒇 π’„π’π’Šπ’Žπ’‚π’•π’† π’„π’‰π’‚π’π’ˆπ’†. 𝐼𝑛 π‘“π‘Žπ‘π‘‘, 𝐴68 𝑖𝑠 π’”π’•π’‚π’•π’Šπ’”π’•π’Šπ’„π’‚π’π’π’š π’–π’π’†π’™π’„π’†π’‘π’•π’Šπ’π’π’‚π’ π‘€β„Žπ‘’π‘› π‘π‘œπ‘šπ‘π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘ π‘‘π‘œ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘‘π‘œπ‘‘π‘Žπ‘™ π‘œπ‘π‘ π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘£π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘Žπ‘™ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘œπ‘Ÿπ‘‘, π‘€π‘–π‘‘β„Ž π‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘£π‘–π‘›π‘” 𝑒π‘₯π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘šπ‘’π‘  π‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘˜π‘–π‘›π‘” 𝑏𝑒𝑑𝑀𝑒𝑒𝑛 1986 π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ 2020.”

The authors also underscore important dynamics about ice sheet behavior in that these kinds of calving events are indicative of healthy glacier advance and retreat, not necessarily ice sheet instability.

πŸ—¨οΈ β€œπ΄π‘  π‘ π‘’π‘β„Ž, π‘œπ‘’π‘Ÿ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘™π‘‘π‘  π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘£π‘’π‘Žπ‘™ π‘‘β„Žπ‘Žπ‘‘ π’†π’™π’•π’“π’†π’Žπ’† π’„π’‚π’π’—π’Šπ’π’ˆ 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒏𝒐𝒕 π’‚π’–π’•π’π’Žπ’‚π’•π’Šπ’„π’‚π’π’π’š 𝒃𝒆 π’Šπ’π’•π’†π’“π’‘π’“π’†π’•π’†π’… 𝒂𝒔 𝒂 π’”π’Šπ’ˆπ’ 𝒐𝒇 π’Šπ’„π’† 𝒔𝒉𝒆𝒍𝒇 π’Šπ’π’”π’•π’‚π’ƒπ’Šπ’π’Šπ’•π’š, 𝑏𝑒𝑑 π‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘’ π‘–π‘›π‘ π‘‘π‘’π‘Žπ‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’ π‘œπ‘“ π‘‘β„Žπ‘’ π‘›π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘™ 𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑒 π‘œπ‘“ π‘π‘Žπ‘™π‘£π‘–π‘›π‘” π‘“π‘Ÿπ‘œπ‘›π‘‘ π‘Žπ‘‘π‘£π‘Žπ‘›π‘π‘’ π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘Žπ‘‘.”

While basal melting increases the rate of ice calving, and calving event frequency did increase around 2015-16 (see here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/4583/2021/), what this study underscores is that extreme iceberg calving events in Antarctica are not necessarily due to climate change and therefore shouldn't be treated as the poster child for it.

Despite these findings, the next time you hear β€œAn iceberg the size of Rhode Island broke off Antarctica last week,” it will be blamed on your SUV.


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