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Chris Martz provides advice for climate catastrophists. Things just got tougher for climate alarmists. 😱Remember when Iceberg A-68 calved off Antarctica's Larsen C Ice Shelf in the summer of 2017? The climate chicken littles blamed it on global warming. 🐔Well, unfortunately for their alarm, a study published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) in November has cast some serious doubt on that claim. MacKie et al. (2024) found:📊 The break-off of Iceberg A-68 from the Larsen C Ice Shelf was 𝒏𝒐𝒕 statistically exceptional.🛰️ There has been 𝒏𝒐 increase in size of the annual largest iceberg calving off of Antarctica since satellite measurements began in 1976.🧊 Using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model, it is revealed that there could, in a theoretical sense, be calving events that produce icebergs several times larger than anything observed in the 47-year-long satellite era, and even if that were to occur, such an event could not necessarily be tied to man-made global warming. These have already occurred throughout the Holocene (e.g., Bentley et al., 2005).🔗MacKie et al. (2024): <a data-mce-href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112235" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112235">https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112235</a>🔗Bentley et al. (2005): <a data-mce-href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/33/3/173/29528/Early-Holocene-retreat-of-the-George-VI-Ice-Shelf" href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/33/3/173/29528/Early-Holocene-retreat-of-the-George-VI-Ice-Shelf">https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article-abstract/33/3/173/29528/Early-Holocene-retreat-of-the-George-VI-Ice-Shelf</a>Here's an excerpt from the new paper,🗨️ “𝑇ℎ𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑢𝑔𝑔𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑠𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘-𝑜𝑓𝑓 𝑜𝑓 𝐴68 𝑖𝑛 2017 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒏𝒆𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒂𝒓𝒊𝒍𝒚 𝒂 𝒔𝒚𝒎𝒑𝒕𝒐𝒎 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆. 𝐼𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡, 𝐴68 𝑖𝑠 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒖𝒏𝒆𝒙𝒄𝒆𝒑𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑑, 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑒𝑥𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 1986 𝑎𝑛𝑑 2020.”The authors also underscore important dynamics about ice sheet behavior in that these kinds of calving events are indicative of healthy glacier advance and retreat, not necessarily ice sheet instability.🗨️ “𝐴𝑠 𝑠𝑢𝑐ℎ, 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝒆𝒙𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆 𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒗𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝒂𝒖𝒕𝒐𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒍𝒚 𝒃𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒂𝒔 𝒂 𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒔𝒉𝒆𝒍𝒇 𝒊𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑦𝑐𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑑𝑣𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡.”While basal melting increases the rate of ice calving, and calving event frequency did increase around 2015-16 (see here: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/13/4583/2021/), what this study underscores is that extreme iceberg calving events in Antarctica are not necessarily due to climate change and therefore shouldn't be treated as the poster child for it.Despite these findings, the next time you hear “An iceberg the size of Rhode Island broke off Antarctica last week,” it will be blamed on your SUV. <a data-mce-href="https://x.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1888745544060985412" href="https://x.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1888745544060985412">Chris Martz on Twitter</a> ..read the replies and followup

Arctic Sea Ice: don't panic

Here Pete North channels Donald Trump and Mr Punch, and imagines what @KemiBadenoch should have said in that interview:"There can be no doubt that the last Conservative government was an abject failure, for which there is no excuse. I can't even begin to apologise and would not insult anyone's intelligence by doing so. But we do get it. We will fix this mess. Labour won't. Reform wouldn't know how. We have a plan. Let me tell you what the plan is.First and foremost, the era of judges dictating our energy and immigration policy is over. We're scrapping the ECHR and the Human Rights Act. We're leaving the Refugee Convention and we're quitting the Paris Agreement. Only Westminster will legislate on these issues. We're already writing the draft legislation. We know there will be fallout. We're ready for it, and we're ready to take on the EU if we have to. We'll finish the job of Brexit. &nbsp;On the matter of asylum, other than Ukraine, there are no wars in our immediate sphere. There is no reason we should have an asylum system at all. We will reduce is to a discretionary system capped at 500 a year aimed at providing sanctuary for political dissidents. Anyone who arrived by dinghy should make arrangements to go home because otherwise, they're going to be leaving on an A400M to the Falklands for an indeterminate stay. We will have a basic camp established within six weeks. We'll have no more foot-dragging and we'll sack anyone who gets in the way.&nbsp;Further to this, we will abolish indefinite leave to remain and no foreign-born individual will be entitled to benefits of any kind. We'll do whatever it takes to reverse the Boriswave. Where countries refuse to take back migrants, they can expect to be hit with a whole array of sanctions including tariffs, and taxes on remittances. We'll stop any flights from even landing in Britain.&nbsp;We will take the immigration function away from the Home Office to set up a specialist ICE style entity. The message is clear. If you're here illegally, we'll find you and deport you. We'll offer generous rewards for information and put investigators on commission. This department will work round the clock. There will be no appeals. There will be daily deportation flights.&nbsp;Further to this, we're no longer going to tolerate Islamism and sectarianism. We're going to consider the terror watch list a deportation list. Any mosque known to have repeatedly hosted hate preaches will be turned into a car park, and we're banning the burka. You can expect to see more measures along these lines. If you want to live according to Islamic tradition, you can't do it here. We're also going to ban the hate marches. Anyone showing open support for terrorist organisations will be jailed, and if they're foreign born, they'll be deported. Multiculturalism is over. No more cultural exceptions, no more two-tier policing, no more leniency, no more cultural relativism. There'll be no more translation services and if you can't pass an English fluency test (written and oral), your days here are numbered. &nbsp;&nbsp;As to legal immigration, we're going to cap it at zero. Britain doesn't need any more immigration. If business doesn't have the skill base, they must start training people. The government will assist in this. We will revert second rate universities to polytechnics. We must train our own people and get them off benefits. What we haven't got, we'll do without. But there's nothing we can't do. There's a reason the world wants to send its youth to elite British universities.&nbsp;Meanwhile, we're going to fix the economy. We will repeal net-zero targets and the climate change act. We're scrapping the EV and heat pump mandates. We're going to get energy bills right down and you can expect to see change within six months. We're phasing out renewables subsidies and no more windfarms or solar parks will be built. We will grant every drilling licence application. Judges won't get a say in it. We're going to scrap carbon taxes, and you can expect to see your bills fall by at least a third. We're scrapping the climate change committee too. We will purge the regressive green ideology from all arms of government.&nbsp;We're then going to clean up our streets. We're no longer going to turn a blind eye to casual drug use and petty crime. We're going to get the rubbish off our streets. We're going to abolish landfill taxes and put an end to fly tipping. We'll shut down the money laundering front shops. We'll clean up the high streets. We'll put lenient judges on notice. They will be held accountable, as will police chiefs.&nbsp;We're then going to clean up government. We'll establish our own DOGE. We'll root out DEI and wokery from all arms of government, and we'll cut the waste. Men will not be considered women in any guise. FCDO grants will be cancelled unless a project has a demonstrable contribution to controlling immigration. We expect to uncover billions in waste. We'll return it to you in the form of tax cuts. We're not going to be wreckers, but we are going to be ruthless.&nbsp;These are our broad aims. I'm building a team to expand and enhance this policy platform, and more detail will follow. The underpinning approach to policy will be "no more half-measures - and no more appeasing the left or the media". We'll do what it takes. The previous government failed because we tried to stay within the existing frameworks - but they no longer work for us. We prized international law over the direct national interest. We've hidden behind bureaucracy to excuse our inaction. That all ends under my leadership." <a data-mce-href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1888946736707822005" href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1888946736707822005">From Twitter</a>

That's the way to do it...

Northern variant - @FUDdaily&nbsp; from <a data-mce-href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1887879440404750369" href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1887879440404750369" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Twitter</a><h3>So how long before "Close, AND a cigar?" </h3>Well, it worked for Churchill... so it's worth a little thought exercise on how @KemiBadenoch &nbsp;could turn things around for the Tories. Her party's two basic problems are credibility and trustworthiness. To build credibility she needs to be rid of the toxic, the deadbeats and the hasbeens. Priti Patel, for instance, cannot be anywhere near the front bench. Her political career should be over.&nbsp;Badenoch says the party is changing. If she wants people to believe it, we need to see proof. The ambiguity is a killer. Activists and influencers won't wait two years for positions and policy. We need to know what the party stands for now. General vibes aren't good enough. The party needs to be explicit about what it will do.&nbsp;<figure id="figure-9xbakquhim6uyyjrg"><img id="9xbakquhim6uyyjrg" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/15opazAphcznySZFtb95u9lgOlMJ6UW6QajK6kHLk0K6BmpnJIuE1Jj24oo7z1LZ.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: undefined% 20%;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined%" data-positiony="20%" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/15opazAphcznySZFtb95u9lgOlMJ6UW6QajK6kHLk0K6BmpnJIuE1Jj24oo7z1LZ.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: undefined% 20%;"></figure>If we are to believe that the party has changed then we need a clear indication that Net Zero targets will be repealed. The party must be clear that no more land will be gobbled up by solar panels and no more windfarms will be built on land or at sea. The EV mandate must be scrapped, along with all heat pump measures. We don't want or need them. &nbsp;&nbsp;Repeatedly Rishi Sunak stood at a podium with the slogan "stop the boats". He stopped short of taking the full measures available to him to ensure the deterrence scheme would work. Voters will tolerate no more half-measures. We need to see a plan that repeals the HRA, neuters the ECHR, renounces the Refugee Convention and takes the courts out of political decision-making.&nbsp;<h3>This has to be bold. We're not going to put up with "we'll decide when the time comes".</h3> The public wants an end to it. Migrants arriving at Dover should be on an aeroplane out of the country within 72 hours - whether it's to the Falklands or Rwanda or their country of origin. Nobody cares where, so long as it's not here.On immigration, nobody wants to hear any waffle about "integration". The time to have that conversation was twenty years ago. Now that we have Islamist sectarianism entering all areas of politics, it's time it is eradicated. The state has to put them on notice.&nbsp;On benefits, no immigrant should be entitled to benefits or housing ever. If they failed to establish themselves and are not able to financially support themselves, they must go home.&nbsp; We do not have the resources to look after our own people, never mind the world's detritus - or "flotsam" - to be accurate.On infrastructure, we need action now. Whatever it is that causes years of delay and budget bloat, repeal it. We cannot have judges deciding whether we can build a power station or a runway. We cannot have blob NGOs calling the shots. On that note, NGOs must be defunded.&nbsp;<h3>We can have no more guessing games or policy triangulation by focus group. Decide what is right and argue the case.</h3>As to outflanking Reform, that shouldn't be too difficult. Reform, fundamentally, is a populist party. They will promise the world on a stick. What they lack is credibility. There is no outward sign that they know what they're doing. There's no sign of a plan. If they publish policy at all, it's likely to be half-baked, simplistic and rushed. The answer to that is to simply do better. Which isn't hard. &nbsp;&nbsp;Badenoch has said we shouldn't expect policy for two years. Fair enough. Detail takes time. But we do need to see an unequivocal agenda. We do need to know whether Badenoch gets it. We do need to know if the party is heading in the right direction. We need to know that the party understands the scale and the urgency of the problems, and we need to know the party has the stones to do what is necessary regardless of how the media whines.&nbsp;Right now, right-leaning voters have no reason to trust the Tory party. They have no reason to care whether it lives or dies. There is no reason to even pay attention to it. We know what we want. We're just looking for someone to deliver it. We've seen what's been done in America just with the political will, and we want that to happen here. Only for us, the choice is between the amateurism of Reform or the treachery of the Tories.The only way to prove that the Tories have changed is to be decisive and make a clean break with the past. No more compromises. No more pandering to the liberal wing. No more "middle way". It's now do or die for the Tory party. If being robust and decisive upsets the liberal wing, then do it anyway, because the alternative is extinction.&nbsp;Voters will eventually make their own minds up. They will take a punt on Reform's empty sloganeering and hope for the best if there is no real alternative. The answer is to be a better alternative. Show people the party has the right ideas and the answers. Show people the party is serious. Otherwise, 2029 is the end for the Tory party - and no-one will care <a data-mce-href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1887879440404750369" href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1887879440404750369" target="_blank" rel="noopener">from Twitter</a> <a data-mce-href="https://veo.uk/ToryPartyRevival.mp3" href="https://veo.uk/ToryPartyRevival.mp3" data-mce-selected="inline-boundary">Audio AI analysis and commentary&nbsp;﻿</a>

Can the Tories become relevant again?

A Vote of No Confidence

<a data-mce-href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1886212867159900542" href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1886212867159900542" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pete North</a> is another commentator observing the Trump rampage and getting high on the overdose of old-fashioned common sense.&nbsp; The news that... "Trump halts tariffs on Mexico as it rushes troops to border Mexico agreed to rush 10,000 national guard troops to the border to strengthen efforts to block the flow of drugs, especially fentanyl, coming into the United States..." ...could be another example of a genius playing the globalist game. Following the Columbia and Venezuela climbdowns. The legacy media is in predictable meltdown.Donald Trump is putting an end to globalisation. More or less at the stroke of a pen, the WTO system is dead. The era of trade liberalisation is over. The age of American elite indifference to deindustrialisation and the export of blue collar jobs is coming to an end. Trump knows that America has leverage and tariffs are an instrument of that leverage, and he's using them to achieve political objectives such as the end of wage-depressing illegal immigration and the import of fentanyl.&nbsp;So will it work? Well, the cost of some things will go up. If American businesses want labour, they're going to have to pay the going rate, so we can assume the cost of food production will rise. Ordinarily, as I understand it, that would be a catastrophic inflationary measure, but this will in time be matched by energy abundance as Trump abandons the green agenda.&nbsp;It likely means the re-shoring of steel, microchip, chemical and pharmaceutical production - which, if nothing else, is strategically prudent. It was a mistake for the West to become so heavily dependent on China.&nbsp;As well as acting in the national interest, this puts political pressure on the "liberal" regimes in Canada and the EU. That's no bad thing. The sooner the Trudeau regime collapses the better, and for Europe to prosper, the EU must fall. The EU's Net Zero policies have done more to collapse European industry than any single influence since WWII.Moreover, Trump is giving us hope that mass migration is not inevitable, and can be reversed if we make better choices at the ballot box. Further to this, if American disengagement brings an end to the pointless war in Ukraine the Europe is safer and better off for it. If Europe is then motivated to pay for its own defence and make itself more competitive, what's not to like?For the USA, this is a fundamental remodelling of the state, the economy, and its role in the world. There will be transitional pain, but Trump really is fixing the foundations, asserting that the USA is a homeland, not just an economy. So far, I'm not seeing a downside. For once in the West, voting made a difference. Meanwhile, back in broken Britain there is news of yet another teenage stabbing in South Yorkshire.&nbsp; Well done on keeping British kids safe Keir Starmer, the Home Office and Yvette Cooper-Balls...&nbsp; The sequitur here is that Trump's action may be securing the US borders and slowing the easy access by criminal gangs and families to the USA. And then rounding them up and sending them home.&nbsp; How can we deploy this apparently successful tactic in our interests? In a world where FAFO is starting to get traction on an international scale, in the UK all the FingA is being done by our pygmy politicians and their witless in fighting.&nbsp;<figure id="figure-1uh76ugsfom6pj2dpc" class=""><img id="1uh76ugsfom6pj2dpc" src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/14v9bNxli2qfngYUQrmGNZRHM7ZjkeWt4bkp74EtPahQZtDZKTcPjF3cwyPa82zs.jpg" alt="" title="" class="object-cover bg-gray-100" style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;" data-corners="default" data-aspect="16:9" data-caption="" data-positionx="undefined" data-positiony="undefined" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://cdn.durable.co/blocks/14v9bNxli2qfngYUQrmGNZRHM7ZjkeWt4bkp74EtPahQZtDZKTcPjF3cwyPa82zs.jpg" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9; object-position: center center;"></figure>

Tariff wars...

The Apprentice is back, and we could not resist fantasising that as he was once a Thatcher admirer and fanboy, he might be persuaded and replicate his US counterpart's success in resurrecting common sense...&nbsp; The robot discussion generator does a fair but imperfect job of extrapolating. The interpretation of DOGE (oops) underlines the importance of avoiding ambiguous acronyms...<figure id="figure-ead9e3g3gm6l2ldfk" class=""><iframe id="ead9e3g3gm6l2ldfk" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o9pdzzw6u8U" class="w-full bg-gray-100 " style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;" allowfullscreen="" data-url="https://youtu.be/o9pdzzw6u8U" data-corners="default" data-fullwidth="false" data-mce-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/o9pdzzw6u8U" data-mce-style="aspect-ratio: 16/9;"></iframe></figure>And Pete again proves that any of the parties that does not acquire his wordsmith talents&nbsp; services is missing a huge trick... (we linked the less well known acronyms)&nbsp; "... <a data-mce-href="https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/29/kemi-badenoch-and-her-team-are-less-woke-more-wonk-when-it-comes-to-building-a-policy-platform/" href="https://conservativehome.com/2025/01/29/kemi-badenoch-and-her-team-are-less-woke-more-wonk-when-it-comes-to-building-a-policy-platform/">Writing for ConHome today</a>, <a data-mce-href="https://x.com/reporterboy" href="https://x.com/reporterboy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@reporterboy</a> makes excuses for Badenoch's lack of policy. There’ll be no new detailed policies announced this far out from an election, he says, rattling off the usual tropes. Firstly, he asks "why give your opponents time to either steal your ideas or take four years slowly attacking them?" That tells us a lot about the timidity of their thinking.When Jenrick threw his hat in the ring, he put out his basic definition of principles, which were loosely based on national conservatism. That provided a philosophical anchor, and a direction that Badenoch simply doesn't have. She has no diagnosis, and no intellectual underpinnings. That's the first problem. We don't need to know the precise details, but we do need to know whether or not we're on the same page.&nbsp;Conservatives who've given the issues any serious thought understand what is going wrong and why. Nothing gets built because of the NIMBY veto. Nothing gets done because judges get the final say. Nobody is deported thanks to our slavish devotion to the <a data-mce-href="https://thecritic.co.uk/whats-wrong-with-the-human-rights-act/" href="https://thecritic.co.uk/whats-wrong-with-the-human-rights-act/">HRA</a> and ECHR, and Refugee Convention. Our national grid is teetering on the brink because of renewable energy. Our economy is flatlining because taxes are too high.&nbsp;<h3>As much as anything, it all comes down to a lack of political will. </h3>What's required is pretty much a rollback of Blair's constitutional meddling and to reassert the primacy of Parliament over binding targets and "international law". Further to this, we need our own version of DOGE. The apparatus of state must be torn down and rebuilt from the ground up.Nobody is expecting or demanding detailed policy to the nth degree, but we do need to see some sign that Badenoch "gets it", and recognises the enormity and urgency of what must be done. We do not want more wonkish technocratic tinkering. We want a full system reboot. Nothing else will do.&nbsp;To say that Labour will steal policies is risible. Labour isn't going to repeal Net Zero Targets. Labour is not going &nbsp;to withdraw from the Refugee Convention. Labour is not going to repeal the HRA or dismantle the DEI empire. Labour is not going to abandon renewable energy. They might abandon heat pumps and the EV mandate but those are policies we WANT them to steal ASAP, for the good of the country.&nbsp;And yes, if you set out policy, the opposition will attack it. That's called politics. You set out your philosophy and your ideas and you go out and argue the case, otherwise you're spending four years on the defensive, treading water, and losing ground as everyone can see you have no answers and no direction.&nbsp;Dilnot talks about the value of think tanks who do the grunt work of policy, but here's the thing. None of them are start-ups. They didn't start work yesterday on the command of Kemi Badenoch. They're already sitting on mountains of policy. There are volumes already written on immigration, not least by the <a data-mce-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_for_Policy_Studies" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centre_for_Policy_Studies" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CPS</a>. There are immediate principles and actions the party must be campaigning for now, not least the abolition of <a data-mce-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indefinite_leave_to_remain" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indefinite_leave_to_remain" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ILR.</a> A policy foundation would give direction to Badenoch's leadership. Instead, we're being told to sit tight with nothing to go on, for years, while the party haemorrhages local support.&nbsp;Dilnot further remarks that "The challenges of 2025, will be subtly different in 2029". Perhaps, yes. The fundamentals will be the same though, because the core problems we've been wrestling with have been the same for at least two decades. They all lead back to the same basic underlying causes which are not going to be fixed with managerial tinkering.&nbsp;You'll get no argument from me that Reform's collection of populist tropes fall far short of actual policy, and their lack of attention to detail marks them out as rank amateurs who would rapidly hit the wall of reality, but they at least have the vaguest outline of where they want to be. Reform has a fuzzy vision but no policy - but the Tory cupboard is completely bare. That, fundamentally, is why the Tories are sliding in the polls.&nbsp;Badenoch isn't going to build a reputation for competence and credibility by dropping policy six months out from an election. She should already have a functioning diagnosis and a policy agenda, and should already be prosecuting her campaign. She can add details as she goes, but she should have recognised that the 2029 election campaign has already started.&nbsp;If she's in a position where her 2029 policies will be as much a surprise to her as anyone else, then she is simply not leading. She is not an intellectual director, she is merely a spokesman for a detached policy unit, and one who will have to explain why policy contradicts so much of what she's improvised to fill airtime in the interim.&nbsp;Dilnot's excuses would be thin at the best of times, but this is no ordinary election cycle. A political sea change is sweeping through the west. We are at the fag end of the post-war liberal era. <h3>The Labour Party is flailing and failing because it exists only to prop up a dying order. A major political realignment is coming, which is essentially Brexit's unfinished business. </h3>There is a space-race to define what follows and the public is not in the mood for more of the same half-baked excuses as to why things cannot be done. The Tories are not owed the benefit of the doubt that in four years time they might have half a clue. &nbsp;I've lambasted both the Tories and Reform for their lack of policy, but it's not just the lack of policy. It's the lack of an intellectual underpinning. It's the lack of ambition, the lack of credibility, the lack of seriousness, and the lack of urgency. If the Tories think we're going to stick around and wait years for them to give us a hint of what they're about, they are very deeply mistaken. &nbsp;<a data-mce-href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1885318565290795419" href="https://x.com/FUDdaily/status/1885318565290795419" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From Twitter</a>

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